NFL 2005 Week 15 Predictions

Getting into the home stretch now. The last few weeks of a season are nearly as hard to pick as the first few. Then you don't know what each team is going to be like, so picking is little more than guessing based on expectations. At the end, most of your better teams are resting their A-list players and going with the backups, so you can't really pick well then either. The only team with a playoff seed locked up is the Colts, and I think they will play their starters this week.

Onto this week...

Bucs @ Patriots
The two teams who have won the last four Super Bowls face off. Both teams lead their divisions this year. As we all know, the Patriots have not been their dominant selves this season, particularly with a secondary decimated by injuries. But against a more run-oriented offense like Tampa, the Patriot defense should be pretty good, forcing the Bucs to rely on the passing of young Chris Simms. I still have to think Belichick and the Patriots can confuse quarterbacks, at least younger ones. The Buc defense is having a fantastic season too, of course. But Brady will find a way to move the ball, as he always does. Prediction: Patriots.

Chiefs @ Giants
This one is a bit tough to pick. If it had been earlier in the season, I would have written that both teams have similar, high powered offenses, but the Giants can also play defense whereas the Chiefs really don't. It would have been easy to pick the Giants. But the Giant offense has struggled a bit lately, particularly in the passing game. Still, the Giants are just two missed field goals away from an eight game winning streak and have a good run defense, which should help neutralize the Chief offensive attack. Prediction: Giants.

Broncos @ Bills
The Bills cannot stop the run, and the Bronco running game cannot be stopped. Run Forrest, Run. Prediction: Broncos.

Cardinals @ Texans
The Cardinals have something going on offense. The Texans have nothing anywhere. Prediction: Cardinals.

Steelers @ Vikings
The Vikings are just a game out of the NFC North lead, after starting 1-3. (Taking a page from the hated Packers, eh? As George Harrison said on the Simpsons, it's been done.) The Steelers are basically out of the AFC North division race but still very much alive for a wildcard. The two keys to Minnesota's turnaround are, (a) a defense that's playing closer to its potential than they did at the beginning of the season, and (b) an offense that has gone very conservative with the loss of Culpepper, a move which masks the weakness of the Viking offensive line. Ultimately, that was the problem on the offense when Daunte was in: poor offensive line play that didn't allow the Vikings to set up their usual vertical passing attack. It looks to me like the matchups favor Pittsburgh. The Viking defensive strength is the secondary, but the Steeler offensive strength is running the ball. The Steeler defensive strength is the defensive front, and the Viking offensive weakness is the offensive line. The Steeler defensive weakness is the secondary, but the Vikings favor a short passing game rather than the deep ball. This is a statement game for the Vikings. In their winning streak, they have not played high caliber opposition. The only team of note they have beaten is New York, and that was a fluke game won due to a couple of breakdowns in the Giant special team coverages; the Giant defense stifled the Viking offense. The Steeler defense is better. If the Vikings are going to take down Chicago, they have to be able to beat good defenses like Pittsburgh. I don't see it happening. Prediction: Steelers.

Seahawks @ Titans
Seattle is cruising to the top seed in the NFC playoffs, and they would have quite a home field advantage. A win here and I believe they have it locked. The Titans won't provide too much resistance. Prediction: Seahawks.

Panthers @ Saints
I'm getting very frustrated with Carolina. Every time they have the chance to finally put the division away and assert themselves as a top NFC team, they blow it. On the other hand, having blown it, they usually come back strong. And these are the Saints we're talking about them facing. Prediction: Panthers.

Jets @ Dolphins
Give Nick Saban credit for getting the Dolphins further along than people expected. Technically they are still alive in the playoff hunt as they could win the division. To be fair, though, remember that just two years ago, Miami was 10-6. Wannstedt had one bad season last year, so bad that people forgot the winning seasons that preceded it. So Saban's achievement is not exactly on par with what Marvin Lewis has done. The Jets are just done. Prediction: Dolphins.

Chargers @ Colts
This could be the last intense game the Colts face until the divisional round of the playoffs. The Chargers need to win out the season to keep their playoff hopes alive, so they will definitely bring their A game. Unfortunately for them, the playoffs are so far in the future that Dungy will treat this like any other regular season game, and the Colts will bring their A game too, and their best is far better than everyone else's. Prediction: Colts.

49ers @ Jaguars
Mike Nolan has also done a good job, but unlike Saban, he did it with a disaster of a roster. To acknowledge that he has had his team playing hard and competing in every game, I have restored San Fran to their full team name. The Jaguars are good enough to win at least one division in the AFC, and several in the NFC. Unfortunately, the division they are in also has the team from Indianapolis. Even with a backup quarterback, they will win this game. I said the 49ers were competitive, I did not say they were good. Prediction: Jaguars.

Eagles @ Rams
Oh how the mighty have fallen. These two teams represent three of the last six NFC champions. This matchup was the 2001 NFC title game. Today, they are just two injury riddled, losing teams. The Ram defense is terrible, so the Eagle offense under McMahon should have some success. The Ram offense isn't all that great anymore, and the Eagle defense should be able to shut them down nicely. Prediction: Eagles.

Bengals @ Lions
That's just not fair. The Bengals, with the second best record in the AFC and one of the top offenses in the whole league, against the Lions, who just stink. They are so bad, they are the new Bengals. Prediction: Bengals.

Browns @ Raiders
Games between bad teams are always tough. Neither team has a good defense. The Browns have a rookie QB whereas Kerry Collins is back in the driver's seat for Oakland. And the Raiders have a good running game. But then so do the Browns. Collins' passing will be the difference. Prediction: Raiders.

Cowboys @ Redskins
This should be a good game. Both teams have strong defenses and offenses capable of putting up some points. The 'Skins haven't done it as much recently. Both have recently had losing streaks that have damaged their playoff chances. Washington is all but out of it now. Dallas is still right in it, both for a wildcard and the division. The first matchup between this rivals was exciting, with the Redskins pulling out a squeaker of a win at the end. Dallas' offense is more aggressive now, with Drew Bledsoe playing better than he has in years, reminding everyone why he was given what amounted to a lifetime contract with the Patriots, until they discovered some guy named Brady. This is the best unit Drew has had to play with since the 1996 Patriots, who went to the Super Bowl. I can't go against them. Prediction: Cowboys.

Falcons @ Bears
The Falcon offense is still primarily about running, despite Vick's attempts to throw more, and the Bear defense should be able to handle that with a very good front seven. Atlanta really hasn't looked great lately, only beating teams like Detroit and New Orleans. The Falcon defense is vulnerable to the run, and the Bears have a good running game. So long as the game is not on Orton's shoulders, and the Falcons don't have the high scoring offense that would put Chicago in a hole, the Bears can control both sides of the ball and churn out the win. Prediction: Bears.

Packers @ Ravens
Another game that illustrates why the league needs flexibility in scheduling late season Monday night games. (Not that it will happen. If nothing else, too many fans who have bought tickets and planned on attending a late season Monday night or Sunday afternoon game for months would be put out if, at the last minute, the scheduling was changed.) But Monday night loses its prestige next year anyway. Don't look now but Green Bay has a defense. They also have an offense, which Baltimore doesn't. Prediction: Packers.

Last Week: 13-3
Season: 130-78

Update: I have discovered that somewhere along the line, the season totals listed on the blog have gotten out of synch with the actual values. Pro Pick'em gives me 130 wins whereas the running total week to week on the blog has 129 wins. I have corrected this week's totals to reflect Pro Pick'em's tracking, but this week's numbers will not jibe with last week's for that reason. Assuming anyone actually cares....